Content and data provided by various third parties and Fidelity − Terms of Use | Help/Glossary
Research > ETFs > ETF / ETP Commentary > 

Bitcoin's Drop Hits a Level Tied to Past Rebounds

BY | ETF Database
9:35 am ET 08/03/26 | 12 VIEWS
Bitcoin has lost more than half its value since October, but the decline has pushed prices down to a level that has, in every past instance, come before a rebound rather than a deeper slide.Key Takeaways: Bitcoin fell to its 200-week price average for only the sixth time on record in June 2026. Every prior instance since 2015 was followed by higher bitcoin prices within a year. The CoinShares Bitcoin ETF (BRRR ) offers regulated exposure to bitcoin’s price moves. That level is bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, a long-run price trend that tracks roughly four years of trading. The measure has served as a rough floor during past bitcoin downturns, according to CoinShares reporting, historically preceding recoveries once prices dipped to or below it. Bitcoin just touched this level for only the sixth time in its history. In each of the five completed touches since 2015, bitcoin traded higher a year later. Gains ranged from 13.2% to more than 1,080%, according to CoinShares. Bitcoin closed at $61,037.18 on June 5, about 0.93% below its 200-week average of $61,608.95, according to Glassnode data cited by CoinShares. The dip followed a slide of more than 50% from bitcoin’s October 2025 high above $150,000. Long-term holders have seen drops like this before. Bitcoin has logged 10 drawdowns of 50% or more in its 18-year history, according to CoinShares. Many investors have treated those stretches as buying windows rather than reasons to sell. To them, the swings reflect a young asset still settling into a stable price. See more: Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Back Above $60KHow Bitcoin Performed After Similar DropsBitcoin has fallen to this level five times before, and each episode carried its own backdrop. The report looks closely at three of them. Bitcoin first fell to its 200-week average in January 2015, closing at $172.21. It climbed 149.7% over the following year and 4,631.6% over five years, according to CoinShares. The March 2020 drop, arriving during the pandemic’s opening liquidity shock, preceded a 1,080.4% one-year gain. The June 2022 drop, which came as crypto lenders collapsed, brought smaller but still positive returns of 13.2% over one year, according to CoinShares. CoinShares cautions that five completed episodes across 11 years is a small sample, and each one unfolded under different economic conditions. Still, the direction has repeated every time: bitcoin has been worth more a year after each prior drop to this level than it was on the day it happened. For investors looking to act on that pattern without holding bitcoin directly, the CoinShares Bitcoin ETF (BRRR ) offers exposure through a regulated fund. The ETF tracks bitcoin’s price while removing the need to manage private keys or exchange accounts. That gives advisors a way to adjust exposure during pullbacks like this one. Whether this pattern repeats remains uncertain. But after the first recorded instance in January 2015, a $1,000 investment in bitcoin grew to more than $47,000 within five years, according to CoinShares.For more news, information, and strategy, visit the CoinShares Crypto ETF Hub.

More Commentary

Value’s Comeback: How VLUE Beats Market-Cap Weighting
BY | ETF Database
10:48 am ET 08/03/26 | 6 VIEWS
This Is One of the Top Bond ETFs of the Past Decade
BY | ETF Database
10:01 am ET 08/03/26 | 17 VIEWS
How Active Bond ETFs Can Beat Second Half Stagflation
BY | ETF Database
8:13 am ET 08/03/26 | 24 VIEWS
View more Commentary

Search Commentary

Enter Keyword(s)
Filter Results

Performance data shown is past performance and is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. Yield and return will vary, therefore you have a gain or loss when you sell your shares. For standard quarterly performance, go to the fund's Snapshot page by clicking on the ETF/ETP's symbol.

ETFs may trade at a premium or discount to their NAV and are subject to the market fluctuations of their underlying investments.

For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain FBS platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF's prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice. BlackRock and iShares are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. and its affiliates.

FBS receives compensation from the fund's advisor or its affiliates in connection with a marketing program that includes the promotion of this security and other ETFs to customers ("Marketing Program"). The Marketing Program creates incentives for FBS to encourage the purchase of certain ETFs. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation is in the ETF's prospectus and related documents. Please note that this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral.

News, commentary (including "Related Symbols") and events are from third-party sources unaffiliated with Fidelity. Fidelity does not endorse or adopt their content. Fidelity makes no guarantees that information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from their use.

Any data, charts and other information provided on this page are intended to help self-directed investors evaluate exchange traded products (ETPs), including, but limited to exchange traded funds (ETFs) and exchange traded notes (ETNs). Criteria and inputs entered, including the choice to make ETP comparisons, are at the sole discretion of the user and are solely for the convenience of the user. Analyst opinions, ratings and reports are provided by third-parties unaffiliated with Fidelity. All information supplied or obtained from this page is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or guidance, an offer of or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell a particular security, or a recommendation or endorsement by Fidelity of any security or investment strategy. Fidelity does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating ETPs. Fidelity makes no guarantees that information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from their use. Determine which securities are right for you based on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, financial situation and other individual factors and re-evaluate them on a periodic basis.

Before investing in any exchange traded product, you should consider its investment objective, risks, charges and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus, offering circular or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.